Disney+ Streaming Service to Reach 82 Million Subscribers Worldwide by 2024: Study, OTT revenues to double in five years, and other top news

Few key things that happened around the Ad Tech & Media Tech world this week.

 

Disney+ Streaming Service to Reach 82 Million Subscribers Worldwide by 2024: Study

Disney’s upcoming Disney+ streaming service will reach 82 million subscribers worldwide by 2024, according to a forecast from Digital TV Research. “Netflix’s dominance of global SVOD is falling, although the company will add 79 million subs between 2018 and 2024 to take its total to 219 million,” it said in its report. And Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, highlighted: “This comes despite the onslaught from new global players.” Netflix has invested in local productions in various parts of the world as foreign markets have become a key driver of user growth for the streaming giant. Amazon Prime will in 2024 rank second with 127 million subscribers, with Apple reaching 13 million, the firm projected. In terms of SVOD revenue though, Disney will rank ahead of Amazon, according to its forecast. Netflix’s revenue will more than double from $15 billion in 2018 to $35 billion in 2024 despite subscriptions only climbing by 57 percent, predicts Digital TV Research. It sees Disney+ generating $7.4 billion in revenue by 2024, ahead of Amazon’s estimated $6.0 billion. Netflix will account for 23 percent of the global SVOD subscriber total, Amazon Prime for 13 percent, Disney+ for 8 percent and Apple for 1 percent, according to the report. “These four companies will control 45 percent of the global total,” said Digital TV Research. “This leaves a substantial market for others, including 30 percent of global subscriptions in China where none of the four global players will operate.”

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OTT revenues to double in five years; bad news for pay TV

The OTT industry will flourish in the next five years. But the news for pay TV is not that good. A report by Digital TV Research has predicted that the two broadcast streams will be heading in opposite direction in terms of their future prospects. Market probabilities over the next five years hold a lots of promise for the OTT industry, which is expected to reach $159 billion by 2024 –more than 100% growth over the $68 billion global revenue last year. However, the pay TV revenues during the period may slump to the $ 177 billion mark – the same level as 2010 even as the number of pay TV subscribers will grow by 380 million between 2010 and 2024. The pay TV sector in India though is poised for a healthy growth during the period between 2018 and 2024. “On a positive note, India will gain $1 billion in pay TV revenues between 2018 and 2024 to take its total to $6.32 billion – up by nearly 20%. India will move up from sixth to third place over this period. The second biggest winner will be Indonesia, with a $786 million gain,” the report quotes Digital TV Research principal analyst Simon Murray as saying. The research forecasts 81 million additional pay TV subscribers between 2018 and 2024 – up by 8%. This will take the global total to 1.10 billion. Based on forecasts for 138 countries, the number of pay TV subs passed 1 billion in 2018.

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DOA: Apple's $6 Billion Streaming Bet to Dethrone Netflix

Streaming wars are heating up with Apple reportedly dropping $6 billion on original content for its Apple + service, though it may be dead on arrival (DOA). Plans of taking over the top spot from Netflix by leveraging super celebrities for shows is perhaps ill-advised and a waste of money. With black millennials streaming videos more frequently than any other group, should Apple tap into shows with a strong black identity as a way to increase subscribers and take over the number one streaming spot? Competition is steep in this space, though Apple’s budget is in good company with media outsider Amazon, they’ve set aside $7 billion for original content in 2019. Top dog Netflix is pouring $15 billion into its original programming this year. CultureBanx noted streaming services like Apple + should be betting on representation by penning deals with the biggest names in black entertainment and culture, as they look to have a bigger stake in the reported $1.3 trillion dollars of spending power African Americans possess. For some reason Apple’s thinks its new series, The Morning Show which stars Reese Witherspoon, Steve Carell, and Jennifer Aniston is going to draw in new a large amount of viewers. Each of these actors will make $1.25 million per episode, and the Financial Times reported, every single episode will cost more than the Game of Thrones $15 million finale. To really help drive subscribers, it will be important for Apple to create authentic original shows like Netflix has done with its Strong Black Lead.

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Majority of US Homes Have a Video Streaming Service

Video streaming services are starting to rival cable companies in the number and complexity of packages they offer. Where cord-cutters could count their savings every month, there are now so many choices that consumers could conceivably pay more than they were before they called off cable. A Leichtman Research Group study found that nearly three-quarters of households in the United States subscribe to a streaming service and that 69 percent pay for more than one. Just four years ago, only 52 percent of households in the US subscribed to a streaming service and 38 percent to more than one. The list of streaming services is ever growing, with one of the latest and biggest, Disney+, launching on November 12. And coming next year is Quibi, which will feature short-form programming created by big names such as Guillermo del Toro and Steven Spielberg. As the number of services grows, the costs of them collectively and individually is rising. Netflix raised the cost of subscriptions in January (and lost some customers). And the subscription price for YouTube TV has recently gone from $40 to $49.99 a month. There is bound to be a threshold for how many services people are willing to pay for and how much—but so far, the market continues to expand.

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Global SVOD subs set to double

The SVOD Forecasts Update also predicts that by 2024, SVOD leader Netflix will contribute 23% of the global total, Amazon Prime Video 13% and the forthcoming direct-to-consumer services Disney+ and Apple TV+, 8% and 1% respectively. Digital TV Research calculates that these four companies will control 45% of the global total. This leaves a substantial market for others, including 30% of global subscriptions in China where none of the four global players will operate. Yet interestingly, the study also finds that even though the company will add 79 million subs between 2018 and 2024 to take its total to 219 million, Netflix’s dominance of global SVOD is falling. Netflix’s revenues are set to more than double from $15 billion in 2018 to $35 billion in 2024 – up by 134% despite subscriptions only climbing by 57%. Disney+ will generate $7.4 billion by 2024; ahead of Amazon Prime Video with $6.0 billion. “This [growth] comes despite the onslaught from new global players,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research commenting on the SVOD Forecasts Update. “We have updated our forecasts based on June 2019 reported figures and the slew of announcements from the newer players.”

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